Overview
- The UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Sept. 23 found Nithya Raman at 39% and Karen Bass at 28% among 2,150 likely Los Angeles voters, with a reported margin of error of about ±3 percentage points.
- About 33% of respondents remain undecided, making their eventual choices decisive and keeping the contest fluid through the Nov. 3 runoff.
- Bass’s favorability lagged far behind Raman’s in the poll, with Bass at roughly 28% favorable and 63% unfavorable, and 56% of voters saying she handled the early‑2025 Palisades fires poorly.
- Raman has picked up grassroots strength from endorsements by the Los Angeles chapter of the DSA and Unite HERE Local 11, which have bolstered her field operation even as establishment groups continue to back Bass.
- The poll’s shift reflects continuing political fallout from the Palisades fires and reporting that an investigation suggested Bass sought to downplay criticism in an official report, and the race’s near term outcome will hinge on how campaigns persuade undecided voters and mobilize turnout.