Overview

• A Quinnipiac University poll of 1,238 likely voters conducted Sept. 11–15 shows Mikie Sherrill at 49% and Jack Ciattarelli at 41%, with a ±3.9-point margin of error and minor-party candidates at 1% each.
• The first Sherrill–Ciattarelli debate is set for Sunday at 7 p.m. as a 90-minute town hall, with wide online and TV streaming options and mail-in voting slated to begin later this week.
• Taxes are the top issue for 30% of likely voters, and rising electricity costs have surged in salience following a 17% PSE&G rate hike that the utility ties to PJM market prices.
• Ciattarelli leans on President Donald Trump’s endorsement and casts Sherrill as aligned with Gov. Phil Murphy, while Democrats brand Ciattarelli as pursuing a MAGA agenda that they say would raise costs.
• Biography and identity messaging is prominent, with Ciattarelli stressing his New Jersey roots and calling Sherrill an outsider, as another recent poll highlighted shifts among independents depending on local versus national issue frames.