Overview
- Quantum researcher Scott Aaronson wrote that it is a live possibility a fault‑tolerant machine running Shor’s algorithm could exist before the next U.S. presidential election, sharpening concern over ECDSA/Schnorr security.
- Ethereum cofounder Vitalik Buterin warned that elliptic‑curve protections could fail as early as 2028, urging developers to prioritize quantum‑resistant pathways for both Ethereum and Bitcoin.
- Alice & Bob CEO Théau Peronnin, whose firm partners with Nvidia, forecast quantum systems that threaten Bitcoin shortly after 2030 and said Bitcoin should shift to stronger cryptography by then, framing his timeline as a prediction.
- Offering a longer runway, Blockstream’s Adam Back pointed to a 20–40 year horizon yet noted NIST’s finalized post‑quantum standards and Bitcoin migration proposals such as BIP‑360, hybrid signatures and block‑space “rescue” moves.
- Analysts highlight immediate exposures including an estimated 25% of BTC with on‑chain public keys and warn of “harvest now, decrypt later,” even as best practices limit spend‑time attack windows and major institutions add quantum risk disclosures.