Quaest Véspera Polls Show Several Gubernatorial Frontrunners Above 50%

Overview

• Quaest released a coordinated set of state polls based on interviews conducted Oct. 2–3 that were published as the last pre‑election snapshots on Saturday, Oct. 3.
• The firm’s likely‑voter results place Daniel Vilela (Goiás), Dr. Daniel (Pará), Otaviano Pivetta (Mato Grosso), Eduardo Braide (Maranhão) and Arthur Henrique (Roraima) above 50% of valid votes, which would meet the threshold to avoid a runoff if confirmed by the vote.
• Several high‑profile contests remain tight: Quaest reports Elmano de Freitas and Ciro Gomes effectively tied in Ceará (50% vs. 49% in valid‑vote terms) and Lorenzo Pazolini narrowly leading Ricardo Ferraço in Espírito Santo, both results within the poll’s sampling uncertainty.
• Quaest used a likely‑voter model that excludes blank, null and abstention responses, interviewed roughly 1,800–2,004 respondents per state, reports a ±2 percentage‑point margin of error at 95% confidence and filed registrations with electoral authorities.
• If the polls hold on election day the Oct. 4 first round could deliver first‑round winners in several states and reshape regional Senate races, but close margins and sampling error mean many outcomes remain uncertain ahead of the Oct. 25 runoffs.