Quaest Poll Shows Lula’s Disapproval Slightly Exceeds Approval Before October Vote

Overview

• A Quaest survey of 2,004 people that ran Aug. 10–13 found 48% disapprove of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and 46% approve, with a margin of error of ±2 points.
• The poll’s deterioration follows three Federal Police inquiries opened in the prior two weeks into Lula’s son Fábio Luis, which investigate alleged influence peddling in Health, favoritism at Dataprev, and illicit business tied to government contracts.
• Respondents reported broad pessimism about the country’s direction and the economy, with 53% saying Brazil is on the wrong track and 49% saying the economy worsened over the past year while 42% expect it to improve in the next 12 months.
• Faced with shrinking approval, Lula has stepped up outreach to Congress, meeting leaders such as Chamber President Hugo Motta and Senate President Davi Alcolumbre to secure legislative wins and electoral backing before the first round.
• The result tightens the campaign but falls within polling error, so analysts say the finding raises Lula’s vulnerability and could push the government to focus messaging on security and economic relief as more polls are published through Oct. 3.