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QQQ Poised to Beat the S&P 500 for a Third Year as Tech ETFs Outpace Broad Funds

Investors face a trade-off between tech‑fueled gains versus the lower‑cost stability of broad S&P 500 trackers.

Overview

  • The tech‑heavy Invesco QQQ has led the S&P 500 each year since 2023, with total returns of 54.9% in 2023, 25.6% in 2024, and 21.6% in 2025 year to date versus 24.2%, 23.3%, and 14.3% for the S&P 500.
  • S&P 500 funds such as IVV and VOO charge far lower fees and pay higher yields than QQQ (e.g., 0.03% expense ratio and ~1.1% yield versus 0.20% and ~0.46%) while offering broader sector coverage; VOO’s $1.5 trillion AUM dwarfs SPYM’s $101.2 billion despite similar returns.
  • Recent comparisons show higher volatility and deeper drawdowns for growth‑tilted ETFs, with QQQ’s five‑year max drawdown at about −35% versus −24.5% for VOO, and VOOG and sector funds exhibiting even steeper declines during sell‑offs.
  • Leveraged products such as TQQQ (3x Nasdaq‑100) and SOXL (3x semiconductors) reset leverage daily and posted extreme five‑year drawdowns (about −81.7% and −90.5%), reinforcing their positioning as short‑term trading tools; SSO (2x S&P 500) has been less severe.
  • Dividend strategies involve clear trade‑offs: SCHD offers a higher yield but has lagged VIG’s recent total returns, while VYM is cheaper and broader than FDVV, which pays more income but is more concentrated in technology; many funds share top holdings like Nvidia, Apple, and Microsoft.