Overview
- Prediction Frontier’s Nov. 9 report shows platforms reported $179.6 billion in Q3 nominal volume but traders paid just $56.1 billion, leaving about a $123 billion gap.
- Platforms count every executed contract at its $1 payout, so a buyer who pays three cents for 100 contracts registers $100 in nominal volume while actually spending $3.
- Kalshi’s multi-leg “combo” products were a major driver, generating $67.1 billion of nominal volume and seeing the average purchase price per $1 contract fall from 32¢ in July to 24¢ in September.
- Across tracked venues nominal turnover rose 84.3% quarter-on-quarter while dollars paid rose 54.7%, moving the nominal-to-paid ratio from about 2.7x in Q2 to roughly 3.2x in Q3 and complicating quarter-to-quarter comparisons because Novig data were added on Aug. 4.
- The gap reshapes how growth and engagement are measured and could prompt closer industry comparisons and regulatory scrutiny, since repeated trading and fund reuse mean neither metric directly measures fresh deposits or true new capital at risk.