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Q1 2026 Hiring Outlook Splits: Mexico Cools as Argentina Rebounds, ManpowerGroup Finds

A record share of Mexican employers remain undecided, reflecting manufacturing and tariff uncertainty.

Overview

  • Mexico’s seasonally adjusted Net Employment Outlook stands at 24% for January–March 2026, down three points from the prior quarter and nine points year over year.
  • The central region of Mexico reports a 24% outlook, three points lower than a year earlier, with analysts pointing to manufacturing and automotive exposure and U.S. tariff effects.
  • Thirteen percent of Mexican employers have not decided on staffing plans for Q1 2026, the highest undecided share recorded by the survey.
  • Argentina’s seasonally adjusted Net Employment Expectation reaches +10%, up five points quarter over quarter and 11 points year over year, led by Finance and Insurance (+27%) and Construction and Real Estate (+20%), with the NEA region strongest at +15%.
  • ManpowerGroup reports expected payroll growth in 40 of 42 countries, with Brazil (+57%), Guatemala (+28%), the U.S. (+27%) and Mexico (+24%) leading in the Americas, and notes Argentina’s release introduces a new sector classification with reclassified historical data.