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PwC Report Finds Under-1% Total-Loss Risk for Northvolt’s Heide Factory: Insolvency Clouds Completion

German and EU officials face demands to safeguard €1.3 billion in undisbursed grants following the public release of PwC’s risk assessment

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Der Schriftzug Northvolt an einem Zaun am Eingang zur Baustelle der Batteriezellenfabrik

Overview

  • PwC’s analysis, based on 20,000 simulations, assessed an 86 percent probability of full repayment and under 1 percent risk of total loss for the €600 million convertible bond backing the Heide plant.
  • Northvolt’s March insolvency filing in Sweden has halted construction and prompted investor bids to determine the factory’s fate.
  • Approved EU grants totaling around €700 million remain frozen, intensifying pressure to protect taxpayer funds.
  • The Federal Audit Office and opposition lawmakers have criticized past decision-makers for insufficient transparency and underestimated economic risks.
  • Federal and state officials are seeking new investment partners to ensure completion of the strategically important domestic battery gigafactory.