Overview
- Sberbank CEO German Gref said Russia’s economy is in stagnation and warned that only a cut in the key rate to about 12% would avert recession.
- President Vladimir Putin disputed that assessment at the Eastern Economic Forum, defending tight monetary policy as necessary to curb inflation.
- Russia’s key rate peaked at 21% in 2024 and stands at 18% after cuts in June and July, with annual inflation around 8.8% and a 4% target projected for 2026.
- A recent central bank report included a graph indicating GDP contracted in two straight quarters, even as Putin praised the regulator’s credibility.
- Finance Minister Anton Siluanov has flagged 2025 growth near 1.5%, while economists argue structural wartime constraints and labor shortages limit what rate cuts can achieve.