Putin Expected to Run in Russia's Presidential Elections, Succession Unclear if he Doesn't

Potential successors emerge within Russia's power structure as Putin's health and the war in Ukraine spark uncertainty ahead of presidential elections.

• Russian President Vladimir Putin, at the age of 71, is expected to seek another term in the upcoming presidential elections, thanks to constitutional changes allowing him two more six-year terms. If he was not on the ballot, the succession is unclear.
• Russia's political system is hermetic and political parties select their candidates. In Putin's absence, the loyalist United Russia party could nominate a candidate but there's no fixed procedure for choosing one.
• Potential successors from within the current power structure include Dmitry Medvedev, Putin's surrogate in 2008; Alexei Dyumin, governor of the Tula region and ex-bodyguard of Putin; Moscow Mayor, Sergei Sobyanin and current Prime Minister, Mikhail Mishustin.
• Dmitry Medvedev could be a contender given his experience as Putin's placeholder in 2008 and his strong defence of the war in Ukraine. However, he could be stained by the perception of his accommodation to the US during the Obama administration.
• Alexei Dyumin's potential candidacy rides on his close relationship with Putin, and his role in the annexation of Crimea in 2014 that adds an aura of valor and success to his persona. However, Sobyanin's potential candidacy could be favoured due to the visible changes in Moscow under his mayoral term from 2010.

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