Overview
- The Treasury is promoting a £4.3bn transitional package that it says will cap many increases to 5% or 15% next year, claiming a typical independent pub will pay about £4,800 less than otherwise.
- Industry modelling points to average rises of roughly 76% for pubs and 115% for hotels over three years, with the BBPA estimating next year’s bills up by £3,867 for a small pub and £11,085 for a medium one.
- Major operators detail cost hits and retrenchment, with Whitbread forecasting a £40–50m impact and leaders at Wetherspoon, Greene King and Butlins warning of higher prices, reduced investment and job losses.
- Political pressure is building as Labour MPs seek changes and attend a private Treasury briefing, while London figures and UKHospitality say pint prices will increase due to rates, wage and alcohol duty pressures.
- Publicans report steep valuation jumps and difficult appeal routes, citing government calculator examples of 291% and 500% bill increases and case studies of rateable values doubling or tripling at individual sites.