Overview
- Late August polling aggregates show Republicans trailing in eight key Senate contests and give Democrats the edge to retake the House.
- The president’s approval has been in the low 30s in several surveys, and he has publicly dismissed unfavorable polls as “fake” while urging regulatory action and telling supporters to vote as if he were on the ballot.
- Republican operatives dispute some public polls and point to private polling, redistricting advantages and a large GOP cash advantage as reasons the public picture may overstate losses.
- Interviews in competitive districts report growing doubts among longtime Trump voters driven by rising costs, tariffs and the war in Iran, weakening the party’s hold in parts of the Midwest and rural areas.
- Control of the House and Senate now hinges on turnout and targeted spending, and analysts say the GOP’s path to holding both chambers is narrow and high risk.