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Prosecutors Say Crew Errors Drove 'Bayesian' Megayacht Capsize

A new weather analysis points to human error ahead of final simulation reports.

Overview

  • Italian prosecutors now attribute the 2024 sinking to crew mistakes rather than weather alone, with seven people dead including Mike Lynch and his 18-year-old daughter.
  • A new study, built from weather re-creations and data pulled from the yacht’s recovered hard drives, found no stand-alone extreme event and said conditions were manageable with standard precautions.
  • Investigators are examining reports that the retractable keel was left raised and the yacht was not turned into the wind, actions that can sharply reduce stability in a side gust.
  • The captain, a chief engineer and a deckhand are charged with negligent shipwreck and multiple negligent homicide as experts complete dynamics and flooding simulations.
  • The Italian stance conflicts with an early UK MAIB view that pointed to possible structural weaknesses around the 75-meter mast and potential responsibility for builder Perini Navi.