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Props, Projections and Key Injuries Define Bills–Texans TNF Betting Picture

Betting guides highlight Josh Allen’s rushing upside against Houston’s elite pass defense.

Overview

  • Week 12 kicks off Thursday in Houston, with models giving Buffalo a 68% win probability, a projected 23-19 score, and a spread around Bills -5.5.
  • C.J. Stroud remains out with a concussion as Davis Mills starts for the Texans, and the Bills will be without tight end Dalton Kincaid due to a hamstring injury.
  • Houston rates No. 1 in defensive dropback EPA and near the top in PFF pass-rush grade, yet it allows the NFL’s worst yards per scramble.
  • Yahoo’s prop card backs Josh Allen over 33.5 rushing yards, Nick Chubb over 20.5 rushing yards, and rookie Jayden Higgins over 27.5 receiving yards.
  • Forbes recommends Josh Allen under 225.5 passing yards, Woody Marks over 60.5 rushing yards based on recent lead-back usage, and Nico Collins under 74.5 receiving yards.