Overview
- Two late polls point to majority support: Berkeley IGS shows 60% yes to 38% no and PPIC finds 56% yes to 43% no.
- Preferences split sharply by method and party, with 63% of mail voters backing yes versus 70% of planned Election Day voters favoring no and Democrats and Republicans at more than 90% on opposite sides.
- Early participation is brisk in parts of the state, including San Bernardino County reporting at least 18% of mailed ballots already returned, while Los Angeles County is adding 140 vote centers and offering more than 400 drop boxes.
- The measure would pause the citizen redistricting commission and let the Legislature set congressional maps for 2026, 2028 and 2030, a move supporters frame as a counter to Texas’ mid-decade remap.
- Independent groups have spent nearly $26 million on Prop 50, a state record, with major outlays from Tom Steyer and the California Republican Party, while one betting market prices yes at -225, implying roughly a two-thirds chance to pass.