Overview

• An analysis from the Public Policy Institute of California finds the proposed map largely mirrors the commission’s on racial and geographic measures while primarily diverging to create more Democratic-leaning districts.
• Pro‑Prop. 50 efforts have outspent opponents by roughly $16 million on ads ($43 million to $27 million), and Republican strategists now privately assess the measure as increasingly likely to pass.
• A recent co/efficient poll of likely voters shows 54% support, 36% opposition and 10% undecided, indicating a modest lead for passage as ballots are cast.
• Opposition leader Charles Munger Jr. has contributed more than $30 million against the measure, arguing he is defending independent redistricting rather than aiding President Trump, while some Democratic officials back Prop. 50 reluctantly as a defensive step.
• The special election is projected to cost taxpayers nearly $300 million, with local reactions mixed in communities likely to see changes, including the San Joaquin Valley’s 22nd District and targeted seats such as Districts 1, 3, 22, 41 and 48.