Overview
- Polls released Sept. 30 show a plurality of likely California voters backing Proposition 40 but not a consistent majority, with results varying across surveys and a meaningful share of voters still undecided.
- Supporters propose a one-time, retroactive 5% levy on residents worth $1 billion or more to raise roughly $100 billion, with 90% earmarked for health care and 10% for education and food assistance.
- Two rival measures on the same ballot, Propositions 41 and 42, are structured to conflict with Prop. 40 and would nullify it if they receive more 'yes' votes, creating a decisive legal wildcard for the Nov. 3 outcome.
- Campaign spending has topped about $200 million, and high-profile figures on both sides are intensifying efforts this week, including Sen. Bernie Sanders’ planned California rallies to boost yes votes.
- Economists and business leaders warn collection is uncertain because billionaire wealth is tied to fluctuating assets, and some wealthy residents have already moved or restructured ties to California, raising risks to projected revenue and investment.