Overview

• Senior Citizens League and independent experts have pegged next year’s cost-of-living adjustment at 2.7%, driven by July’s 2.7% headline CPI and 2.5% CPI-W readings
• The Social Security Administration will compute the definitive COLA by averaging CPI-W data for July through September and publish its decision in October
• Advocates warn that the CPI-W-based increase may understate retirees’ expenses since housing, medical care, groceries and transportation costs have climbed faster
• SSA actuarial analyses show President Trump’s recent tax changes push the trust fund’s solvency date from 2033 to 2032 and signal a potential 25.8% benefit reduction by 2034 without legislative action
• Rising Medicare Part B premiums and mandatory repayments of past overpayments could erode much of the net boost beneficiaries receive in 2026