Projected Mid‑3% Social Security COLA Would Boost Checks Most in High‑Benefit States

Overview

• Advocacy groups and independent forecasters are reporting a projected 3.5%–3.6% cost‑of‑living adjustment for 2027, which would be the largest nominal increase since 2023.
• The Social Security Administration will announce the official COLA after the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ July–September CPI‑W average is finalized, and late summer readings could change the final percentage by tenths of a point.
• Nationwide, the average retired‑worker benefit is $2,071, but states with higher median checks such as New Jersey ($2,256) and Connecticut ($2,249) would see larger dollar gains because the COLA is a flat percentage.
• Under the projection, New Jersey retirees could see roughly $79–$81 more per month while the national average increase would be about $72–$75, though these nominal gains may be reduced by rising Medicare Part B premiums, IRMAA surcharges, and taxes on benefits.
• Longer term, Social Security’s funding pressures reported by the trustees frame debates over benefit rules and indexation, which could affect how future COLAs and benefits are calculated.