Overview
- Independent forecasts from the Senior Citizens League (3.6%) and AARP (3.5%) point to a mid‑3% cost‑of‑living adjustment for 2027 that would affect roughly 75 million Social Security and SSI recipients.
- A 3.5% increase would raise the average retired worker's monthly benefit by about $73, roughly $876 more over a year, based on AARP's July 2026 average benefit figure.
- The Social Security Administration calculates the COLA by comparing the average CPI‑W for July, August and September with the same three months a year earlier and will publish the official rate in October.
- Only July's inflation data has been released so far so August and September CPI‑W reports remain decisive and shifts in Medicare Part B premiums could reduce beneficiaries' net gains.
- Analysts link current inflation pressures to recent tariff actions and higher energy costs tied to conflict with Iran and say the outcome will shape debates about whether the CPI‑W properly reflects seniors' costs.