Particle.news

ProFarmer Tour and USDA Reports Tighten Near‑Term U.S. Grain Outlook

Weaker on‑the‑ground yield and pod counts with lower mid‑August condition ratings are raising supply risk ahead of USDA’s August production updates.

Overview

  • U.S. weekly export inspections for the week ending Aug. 13 showed 1.91 million metric tons of corn shipped, leaving marketing‑year corn exports about 80.95 MMT or roughly 26% above last year.
  • USDA FGIS reported soybean loadings of 270,201 MT for the same week and marketing‑year soybean exports near 40.04 MMT, about 18% below last year.
  • The ProFarmer Crop Tour this week found notably lower corn yields in Nebraska (163.61 bpa) and Indiana (183.54 bpa) and reduced soybean pod counts in those states versus a year ago.
  • USDA/NASS mid‑August Crop Progress shows soybean good/excellent ratings down 1 point to 61% and corn down 1 point to 60%, and these fresh field signals helped push corn modestly higher and sparked a midweek soybean rally.
  • Large Brazilian shipments and a private U.S. sale of 136,000 MT to China are moderating tightness, but markets will look to USDA’s August production and WASDE reports for a definitive reset of near‑term prices and feed cost risks.