Overview

• Governments’ 2030 production plans are 120% above levels compatible with 1.5°C and 77% above a 2°C pathway, up from a 110% overshoot in 2023.
• Coal shows the biggest mismatch, with projected 2030 output about 500% above a 1.5°C-consistent level, while oil is 31% and gas 92% higher than 1.5°C-aligned trajectories.
• The analysis of 20 major producers finds 17 plan to increase at least one fossil fuel by 2030 and 11 have raised planned output since 2023, despite COP28’s call to transition away from fossil fuels.
• Only six of the profiled governments have production plans aligned with national and global net‑zero targets, and China, the United States and Russia accounted for over half of 2022 extraction-based emissions.
• The report warns subsidies, public investments and new infrastructure are locking in emissions—citing Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline—and urges explicit production cuts in updated NDCs ahead of UN meetings and COP30.