Private Forecasters Push 2027 Social Security COLA Toward 4%

Overview

• In mid‑May, The Senior Citizens League and independent analysts raised their early 2027 COLA forecasts into a roughly 3.9–4.2% range based on stronger inflation readings.
• If those projections hold, average monthly Social Security checks would rise about $60–$81, lifting the average benefit into the low $2,100s per month.
• The Social Security Administration will calculate the official COLA in October by comparing the July–September average of the CPI‑W with the same period a year earlier, so current estimates remain provisional.
• Advocates warn that even a larger COLA will not restore a decade of lost purchasing power and could be eroded by rising Medicare premiums and other health‑care costs.
• Budget analysts say bigger COLAs raise near‑term benefit outlays and slightly accelerate long‑term funding pressure, with trustees and analysts projecting possible trust‑fund strains around the early 2030s.