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Private Data Point to Services Pickup and Modest Jobs Rebound as Markets Scale Back December Cut Odds

With official figures on hold during the shutdown, investors are leaning on surveys that signal a cooling jobs engine and are trimming, not abandoning, expectations for fresh Fed easing.

Overview

  • ADP reported a 42,000 rise in private payrolls for October, reversing September’s decline but underscoring a slower hiring trend than a year ago.
  • ISM’s services PMI rose to 52.4, the highest in eight months, while its services employment index stayed in contraction at 48.2.
  • Challenger, Gray & Christmas said employers announced more than 150,000 layoffs in October, the biggest for that month in over two decades.
  • With BLS releases suspended by the record shutdown, markets now price roughly a 60%–67% chance of a December Fed rate cut as the 10‑year Treasury yield hovers near 4.15% and equities steady in the U.S. and Asia.
  • U.S. Supreme Court justices expressed skepticism about the legality of President Trump’s broad tariffs, injecting additional uncertainty for trade‑exposed sectors.