Overview

• François Bayrou pressed his case before Medef at Roland-Garros and invited party leaders to talks from September 1 under Article 49.1.
• The 2026 consolidation plan targets roughly €43.8–44 billion in savings through measures such as scrapping two public holidays, a possible year-long indexation freeze, changes to retirees’ tax abatements and additional levies on high earners.
• Rassemblement National leaders say it is too late to negotiate, La France insoumise will not attend talks, and the Socialist Party readies a counter-budget focused on raising revenues from the wealthiest.
• Analysts’ seat counts point to a likely defeat for the government, with abstentions not counted as support in a 49.1 confidence vote.
• Political uncertainty has already jarred markets, with Paris stocks falling and France’s 10‑year yield rising above 3.5%, and a collapse would jeopardize the tight early‑October budget calendar.