Overview
- Yifan He and colleagues model a roughly 4% probability that 60‑meter asteroid 2024 YR4 will strike the Moon on December 22, 2032, with an Earth impact ruled out.
- The simulated collision releases energy comparable to a medium‑sized thermonuclear weapon, creating a crater about 1 km wide and 150–260 meters deep with a central ~100‑meter melt pool.
- Researchers project a magnitude ~5.0 global moonquake and a highly visible event for the Pacific nighttime side, followed by a days‑long infrared afterglow suitable for observatories such as JWST.
- Ejecta modeling indicates up to ~400 kg of lunar material could survive reentry, producing a meteor storm near Christmas 2032 with up to 20 million meteors per hour and 100–400 fireballs per hour, with likely fallout over South America, North Africa, and the Arabian Peninsula.
- The study warns of potential threats to satellite mega‑constellations and a heightened Kessler Syndrome risk, as space agencies weigh deflection options with no mission selected and further observations pending.