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Prediction Markets Top $50 Billion During World Cup, Forcing Regulatory and Business Tests

The surge has triggered a fight over whether event contracts are state-controlled sports bets or CFTC-regulated financial products.

Overview

  • Platforms processed more than $50 billion in World Cup-related trades during the tournament, with Kalshi reporting a single winner market that exceeded $1.2 billion.
  • Kalshi told CNBC it added about 3 million new users over the course of the World Cup and saw its June volume jump into the tens of billions.
  • Kalshi ran heavy marketing tied to the tournament, using stadium co-branding, an OpenAI search integration, and ads featuring Luka Modric, José Mourinho, Lionel Messi and celebrities.
  • State gaming regulators argue the contracts are sports betting under state law while Kalshi and the federal government say the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has authority, creating an active legal dispute.
  • Trading spiked on match days and fell on quiet days, crypto-native platforms drew cross-border users with near-instant settlement, and firms now face the challenge of turning event-driven signups into steady, recurring traders.