Overview
- Kalshi shows trading volume just over $5.5 million on shutdown duration, with 56% pricing for roughly 28 days, 71% for more than 20 days, and 45% for more than 30 days.
- Polymarket indicates a strong view that the stoppage will extend beyond two weeks, with about $2.2 million wagered on its length market.
- Recent market activity follows earlier spikes reported this week, including Kalshi’s nearly 24‑day forecast and Polymarket’s heavy betting on mid‑October or later.
- Negotiations remain stuck, and the Senate is not slated to vote again until Tuesday, reinforcing trader expectations for a prolonged lapse in funding.
- Real‑world stakes loom as President Donald Trump warns some furloughed workers may not be called back and as Pennsylvania regulators scrutinize Kalshi’s wagering products.