Overview
- Prediction markets hit a new peak, with CoinGecko reporting $113.8 billion in Q2 volume and roughly $44.8 billion traded on Polymarket and Kalshi in June, a spike published Monday.
- The June surge was driven largely by FIFA World Cup event betting that transformed outcome platforms into high‑traffic sportsbooks and sent monthly volumes sharply higher.
- The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission opened a proposed‑rule comment window on prediction‑market public‑interest determinations that closes today, creating a near‑term regulatory inflection point for the sector.
- Market share shifted in Q2 as Kalshi’s share rose to about 58.9% while Polymarket’s share fell to about 30.2%, and Bitget Wallet analysis found around 60% of Polymarket users had never traded on‑chain before.
- Mainstream crypto shows strain at the same time—spot volumes on top centralized exchanges fell and major assets lost value—raising the prospect that speculative capital could move into prediction markets depending on the CFTC’s final stance.