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Prediction Markets Ride Super Bowl Surge as Kalshi Boosts Oversight and Trading Nears $170 Million

States are challenging the federally regulated event‑contract model as major platforms expand nationwide and officials weigh consumer risks.

Overview

  • Kalshi tightened surveillance days before the game, creating an independent oversight committee and partnering with Solidus Labs to monitor for manipulation and insider trading.
  • Super Bowl trading on prediction platforms has exploded, with Kalshi reporting roughly $166–$170 million on game markets and industry activity running deep into the hundreds of millions of dollars.
  • Big brands have piled in for Super Bowl week, with Robinhood rolling out hundreds of markets, Fanatics launching its prediction platform in 24 states, and Crypto.com unveiling a new venue that includes margin trading.
  • The legal fight is escalating as Nevada, New Jersey, and Massachusetts pursue actions to curb sports contracts they deem unlicensed wagering, even as the CFTC’s new chair signals support for industry growth and the NFL bars prediction‑market ads for the game.
  • Consumer‑protection concerns are mounting: Maine advocates call the activity gambling, an analyst report alleges faster losses for Kalshi users (a claim the company disputes after retracting an initial 'extortion' accusation), and operators say they are applying stricter integrity standards.