Particle.news
Download on the App Store

Prediction Markets Put Aaron Judge on Brink of 2025 AL MVP Ahead of Tonight's Reveal

Voters must weigh Judge’s dominant rate stats against Cal Raleigh’s 60-homer season at catcher.

Overview

  • The BBWAA will announce the American League MVP at 7 p.m. ET Thursday, with Aaron Judge and Seattle’s Cal Raleigh viewed as the two leading candidates.
  • Prediction market Kalshi prices Judge at roughly a 94% chance to win after about $2.4 million in trades on the market.
  • Judge delivered a .331/.457/.688 slash line with 53 home runs and an MLB-best WAR, and he already holds AL MVP awards from 2022 and 2024.
  • Raleigh paced MLB with 60 home runs, becoming the first catcher to reach that total and setting a switch-hitting home run record.
  • Analysis highlights voter fatigue versus recognition of milestone seasons as factors in the race, with José Ramírez considered a distant third finalist.