Overview

• Kalshi and Polymarket launched short-term contracts asking whether President Trump will leave office before 2026, pricing the outcome at roughly 6% to 10%.
• Polymarket reported more than $500,000 in trades on the contracts, and Kalshi saw similar volumes, reflecting brisk interest despite low odds.
• Trading surged after viral posts on X falsely claimed Trump had died, following a brief stretch without public appearances and photos showing hand bruising.
• Trump denied the speculation on Truth Social and appeared publicly, including at his Virginia golf course and in White House remarks, which helped keep probabilities subdued.
• Kalshi clarified its contract would not pay out on a death outcome, and reporting noted that such markets generally frame potential resolution around resignation or removal.