Overview

• Kalshi now puts Democrats at 63% to retake the House and Republicans at 37%, down from 83%–17% in April, Harry Enten reported on CNN.
• Enten said the contest has moved from a likely Democratic pickup to something closer to a toss-up that still slightly favors Democrats.
• He compared current trends to 2017–2018 and said Democrats are not keeping the same generic-ballot pace that preceded their 2018 gains.
• Enten estimated Republicans could gain about seven seats from map maximization, with a potential additional 10–17 if the Supreme Court curtails race-based districting.
• A Washington Post/Ipsos survey in mid-September showed Republicans holding leads on the economy (+7), immigration (+13) and crime (+22), which Enten said could hinder Democrats in 2026.