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2h ago

Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Sets Stage for Market Repricing on September Rate Cut

Futures now imply roughly three-in-four odds of a quarter-point cut next month following soft hiring data.

U.S. dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this illustration taken May 4, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Image
U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following the issuance of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 18, 2025. REUTERS/Kevin Mohatt/ File Photo
Pedestrians walk past a stock quotation board showing the Nikkei share average outside a brokerage in Tokyo, Japan, August 12, 2025. REUTERS/Kim Kyung-Hoon/File Photo

Overview

  • The Fed chair speaks Friday at 10 a.m. ET in Jackson Hole in what is likely his final keynote there before his term ends in May 2026.
  • CME FedWatch shows about a 73%–75% probability of a 25‑basis‑point cut in September, down from about 92% a week earlier.
  • Recent Fed commentary points to caution, with analysts saying Powell is unlikely to pre‑commit to easing and will emphasize data dependence.
  • Tariff‑related price pressures have become a key risk for inflation, complicating the case for cuts even as the labor market shows signs of cooling.
  • Political scrutiny has intensified, with CNBC reporting the Justice Department plans to investigate Fed Governor Lisa Cook following a White House referral.