Overview

• Futures imply roughly an 80%–85% chance of a 25 basis point cut at the Sept. 16–17 Fed meeting, according to CME and LSEG data.
• Powell is scheduled to speak Friday at 10 a.m. ET in Wyoming, delivering “Economic Outlook and Framework Review,” with expected commentary on the policy path and the Fed’s decision-making framework.
• Treasury benchmarks are steady into the event, with the 2-year yield near 3.76% and the 10-year around 4.34%, reflecting a cautious tone across risk assets.
• Recent data pull in opposite directions: July payrolls rose by 73,000 with sizable downward revisions, while producer prices surprised to the upside, including tariff-sensitive categories.
• Strategists warn of downside if Powell sounds less dovish, with Evercore ISI suggesting a balanced tone could trigger a 7%–15% equity pullback into October.