Overview

• Jackson Hole opens today in Wyoming, with Jerome Powell delivering his final keynote as Fed chair on Friday.
• Traders assign roughly an 80%–85% chance of a 25 basis-point cut at the Sept. 16–17 meeting as Treasury yields edge higher.
• July FOMC minutes show most officials favored holding steady while Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman dissented for an immediate cut.
• Officials flagged tariff-related price pressures as an upside inflation risk even as July payrolls disappointed and prior months were revised sharply lower.
• Political scrutiny intensifies as President Donald Trump pushes for lower rates, pressures Governor Lisa Cook, and advances Stephen Miran to fill a board vacancy.