Overview

• Market odds remain near 85% for a 25-basis-point cut in September, though hotter inflation readings have knocked back near-certainty.
• Wednesday’s FOMC minutes will reveal debate over cuts, including two July dissents, offering fresh insight on policymakers’ leanings.
• In his Friday Jackson Hole speech, Powell is expected to weigh mixed labor and inflation signals without explicitly pledging a rate cut.
• Earnings from Walmart, Target, Home Depot and Lowe’s, plus this week’s housing starts and existing home sales data, will test tariff-driven price pressures and consumer demand.
• Intensifying public pressure from President Trump and talk of Powell’s succession highlight political complexities facing the Fed.