Overview

• The Fed lowered its policy rate by 25 basis points last week to 4.00%–4.25%, and Powell warned there is “no risk‑free path” as inflation risks tilt higher while employment risks rise.
• New Governor Stephen Miran dissented in favor of a 50‑basis‑point cut and is pressing for faster reductions, while Governor Michelle Bowman cautioned that labor deterioration could require quicker moves.
• Fed projections signal roughly two more quarter‑point cuts this year, yet officials are split over the pace and size of further easing.
• Powell said tariff‑driven goods price increases show limited pass‑through so far, with estimates that tariffs are adding about 0.3 to 0.4 percentage point to core PCE.
• With unemployment near 4.3% and payroll growth slowing, upcoming PCE and jobs reports will shape the October 28–29 meeting, as the White House bid to remove Governor Lisa Cook—blocked by a judge and petitioned to the Supreme Court—keeps Fed independence under scrutiny.