Overview

• Traders price a roughly 72%–75% chance of a 25 basis point move next month, down from near certainty last week, according to CME FedWatch.
• Powell is scheduled to speak at 10 a.m. ET in what is expected to be his final Jackson Hole address before his term ends in May 2026.
• U.S. equities have slid for five straight sessions and the dollar has steadied as investors brace for guidance from the speech.
• July payrolls increased by just 73,000 with sizeable downward revisions and unemployment at 4.2%, intensifying the policy debate.
• Fed minutes show governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman favored a cut in July, as President Trump steps up public pressure on the central bank.