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1h ago

Powell to Deliver Jackson Hole Keynote as Markets Gauge Odds of a September Rate Cut

Investors see elevated odds of easing next month, with most expecting a cautious, data‑dependent message rather than a clear signal.

U.S. dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this illustration taken May 4, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
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Overview

  • Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks Friday at 10 a.m. ET in Jackson Hole on “Economic Outlook and Framework Review,” at a symposium running Aug. 21–23 focused on labor markets.
  • FedWatch shows traders pricing roughly a 74% chance of a September rate cut, down from near certainty earlier this month as mixed data reset expectations.
  • Analysts, including deVere’s Nigel Green, expect Powell to avoid a ‘green light’ and emphasize upcoming readings before the Sept. 16–17 FOMC decision.
  • Recent labor figures complicate the outlook, with July payrolls up just 73,000, more than 250,000 downward revisions to prior months, and unemployment at 4.2%, alongside tariff‑related price pressures.
  • Last year’s Jackson Hole remarks preceded a full percentage point of rate cuts over three meetings, and this appearance is expected to be Powell’s last keynote there before his term ends next year.