Overview

• Stocks surged, with the Dow closing at a record, Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened following his remarks.
• Futures markets raised the probability of a quarter‑point cut at the Sept. 16–17 meeting to roughly 83%–90%, according to CME FedWatch.
• Powell cited a slowing labor market as a growing concern and flagged tariff‑driven price pressures as an ongoing inflation risk.
• Key data in the next two weeks — the Sept. 5 jobs report and subsequent inflation readings — will shape whether the Fed trims its 4.25%–4.50% policy rate.
• Policy makers remain split on easing, and analysts expect possible dissent, as political pressure from the White House intensifies even as the Fed stresses independence.