Overview

• Stocks jumped after the Jackson Hole speech, with the Dow up 846 points to a record close as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rose and the Russell 2000 outperformed.
• Treasury yields fell sharply and the dollar weakened, reflecting bets that policy easing could begin as soon as next month.
• Traders lifted the probability of a September cut to roughly 80%–90% based on CME FedWatch, with some pricing pointing to a quarter‑point move and potential follow‑up easing later in the year.
• Powell said downside risks to employment are rising even as tariff‑related pressures threaten to lift prices, stressing that any policy shift would be careful and conditional.
• Economists note policymakers remain divided and a unanimous vote is unlikely, placing extra weight on upcoming data and the Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting as political scrutiny of the Fed intensifies.