Overview

• Traders priced roughly a 90% probability of a September cut after the speech, up from earlier expectations.
• The Dow hit a record high as the S&P 500 and Nasdaq climbed about 1.5% to 2%, while Treasury yields fell and the dollar weakened.
• Powell cautioned that new tariffs are starting to lift some prices and could entrench inflation pressures that the Fed must weigh.
• He underscored that decisions will be based on data and not politics, as President Trump intensifies pressure and threatens to remove Fed governor Lisa Cook.
• The policy rate remains 4.25%–4.50% ahead of the Sept. 16–17 FOMC meeting, following rare dissent at the July decision.