Overview

• Powell delivers his Jackson Hole keynote at 10 a.m. ET, with futures implying roughly a low‑70% chance of a 25 basis‑point cut in September after a pullback from near‑certainty, according to CME FedWatch.
• July hiring disappointed with 73,000 jobs added and unemployment at 4.2% alongside downward revisions, while inflation remains above the 2% goal and new tariffs present upside price risks.
• Federal Reserve minutes confirmed rare governor dissents in July as Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman preferred a 25 bp cut, even as officials such as Beth Hammack and others signaled caution about easing next month.
• U.S. stocks have fallen for five straight sessions with futures modestly higher pre‑market, the dollar has firmed, and short‑dated Treasury yields have risen as investors await guidance.
• Political pressure from President Trump has intensified through public attacks on Powell and calls for Governor Lisa Cook to resign, and analysts broadly expect a measured, data‑dependent message rather than a firm commitment on September.