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2d ago

Powell Set to Address Jackson Hole as Markets Cool on September Rate Cut

Investors seek clarity on softening jobs, sticky inflation, tariff pressures, plus the Fed’s independence.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds a press conference following the issuance of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 30, 2025. REUTERS/Jonathan Ernst/File Photo
U.S. dollar, Euro and Pound banknotes are seen in this illustration taken May 4, 2025. REUTERS/Dado Ruvic/Illustration/File Photo
Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., August 21, 2025. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo
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Overview

  • Powell speaks at 10 a.m. EDT in his final Jackson Hole keynote before his term ends in May 2026, with remarks expected to outline a streamlined policy framework.
  • CME FedWatch shows roughly 70%–74% odds of a September rate cut, down from above 80% last week, reflecting a pullback in market confidence.
  • U.S. stocks have fallen for five straight sessions, futures edged higher Friday, and Treasury yields and the dollar strengthened ahead of the speech.
  • July payrolls rose by about 73,000 with unemployment at 4.2%, while inflation remains above the 2% goal and new tariffs threaten higher prices, complicating the policy calculus.
  • Minutes from July showed dissents from Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman in favor of a 25 bp cut, as President Trump’s attacks on Powell and his call for Governor Lisa Cook to resign raised fresh concerns about Fed independence.