Overview

• Markets assign roughly an 85% probability to a 25-basis-point rate cut in September, underpinning elevated investor expectations ahead of the speech.
• Powell’s address on August 22 is expected to be his final presentation at the Jackson Hole symposium as Federal Reserve chair.
• Release of July 30–31 meeting minutes could reveal details on votes by Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller against keeping rates unchanged.
• President Trump’s public criticism and reports of an active search for a successor have intensified scrutiny of Powell’s defense of the Fed’s independence.
• Senior officials from the ECB, Bank of Japan and Bank of England are scheduled to attend and may use the symposium to outline their own policy views.