Overview

• At Jackson Hole, Jerome Powell said the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting policy, citing rising downside risks to employment and potential tariff-driven price pressures.
• Futures now imply roughly 85%–90% odds of a quarter-point cut in September, up from about 75% before the speech, according to CME FedWatch.
• Stocks jumped with the Dow up 846 points to a record close, the S&P 500 up 1.5% and the Nasdaq up 1.9%, while the dollar weakened.
• Treasury yields fell notably, with the two-year near 3.69% and the 10-year around 4.25%, as investors repriced the path of policy easing.
• Rate-sensitive groups outperformed, including homebuilders, regional banks and small caps, and crypto advanced, as the Fed reiterated a data-dependent approach ahead of the Sept. 16–17 meeting amid renewed political pressure.