Overview

• Powell said rate reductions are now appropriate given softer labor data and moderating inflation, while stopping short of a firm timetable.
• The Fed’s benchmark remains at 4.25–4.50%, with policymakers citing uncertainty from the president’s tariff strategy.
• Futures pricing points to roughly 80–84% odds of a 25‑basis‑point cut in September, the dollar weakened and U.S. stocks rallied.
• President Trump has escalated pressure on the Fed, insulting Powell, threatening his removal and calling for Governor Lisa Cook to resign.
• Economists quoted in coverage argue a cut can be justified by recent data, as others warn that perceived political influence could undermine confidence in the dollar.