Particle.news
Download on the App Store
33 ARTICLES
·
3h ago

Powell Flags Rising Job Risks, Keeps Options Open on Rate Cuts and Balance-Sheet Runoff

A government data blackout complicates the Fed’s choices as markets largely price in two quarter-point reductions.

Image
Vice Chair for Supervision of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors Michelle W. Bowman moderates a discussion with OpenAI CEO Sam Altman (not pictured) during the Federal Reserve's Integrated Review of the Capital Framework for Large Banks Conference in Washington, D.C., U.S., July 22, 2025. REUTERS/Ken Cedeno/File Photo
U.S. Senator Susan Collins (R-ME) speaks to members of the media as she stands in an elevator at the U.S. Capitol on the third day of a partial government shutdown, on Capitol Hill in Washington, D.C., U.S., October 3, 2025. REUTERS/Nathan Howard
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference following the Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Wednesday, Sept. 17, 2025, at the Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington. (AP Photo/Jacquelyn Martin)

Overview

  • Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the downside risks to employment have increased and that policy will be set on a meeting-by-meeting basis, noting the outlook is little changed from September.
  • Private indicators point to a low-hiring, low-firing labor market, with official September jobs data delayed by the shutdown and the CPI report now due Oct. 24.
  • Powell said recent goods-price increases primarily reflect tariffs rather than broader inflationary pressures, even as inflation remains above the 2% goal.
  • He indicated the Fed may approach the point in coming months to stop balance-sheet runoff, signaling a potential pause to quantitative tightening.
  • Markets expect quarter-point cuts at the Oct. 28–29 and December meetings, while officials remain divided; Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson backed easing along the Fed’s projected path to support the job market.